Posted 4:34 PM by Dil
Knowledge of intelligence analysts under examination
From Mr Douglas R. Nicoll



Sir, The statement by Dr Brian Jones (report, February 5), formerly of the Ministry of Defence’s scientific intelligence analytical staff, is of the greatest interest, explaining as he does how he and his colleagues were unhappy with the Joint Intelligence Committee draft paper (the “dossier”) on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Tony Blair said in the Commons that these worries on the part of the Defence Intelligence Staff could not have been known to the JIC members “let alone to Downing Street” (Hansard, February 4, col 770) because they had been overruled by the head of the DIS.
As a member of GCHQ I had the pleasure of dealing with the MoD scientific intelligence staff from the 1950s onwards for some 40-odd years. They were excellent scientists who became good intelligence analysts. I also dealt with the JIC staff over those years and sat on JIC committees.



The suggestion by Mr Blair that the JIC would be unaware of the worries of Dr Jones and his colleagues on WMD strikes me as being in the highest degree of improbability. As Lord Hutton explained, JIC reports are drafted by the assessments staff in the Cabinet Office, a small body of experienced analysts attached from JIC departments and usually led by a prominent member of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

If changes to a draft paper were proposed by a department or a member of the JIC staff, the change would always be discussed in detail by the assessments staff with the relevant experts. Dr Jones was precisely such an expert.

What seems to be entirely new under the present Government is the involvement in the production of JIC papers of what one must call, for want of a better word, “politicos” from No 10 staff. Lord Hutton did not seem to be aware that their involvement was unprecedented, and accepted it as necessary for “presentational” purposes.

Dr Jones’s statement suggests that Alastair Campbell’s intervention represented a great deal more than “presentation”. It cannot be right for such politicos to be involved at all in the production of JIC reports. Perhaps there is something here for Lord Butler of Brockwell to investigate.

Yours faithfully,
DOUGLAS R. NICOLL,
4 Stone Close, Colwall,
Malvern, Worcestershire WR13 6QZ.
February 5.


From Mr David Fairbairn

Sir, It now seems clear that the 45-minute claim has two meanings: A, battlefield deployment, which has intelligence backing, and B, missile threat to UK subjects, which looks like nonsense.

The question now is whether the Government, in advancing B as a justification for war, knew it was wrong. Tony Blair claims he thought B obtained. Geoff Hoon apparently knew it was A, but kept quiet. Robin Cook also knew it was A and spoke up.

In this confused situation the best we can do for an answer seems to be “probably”. That is, of course, the word used by Andrew Gilligan when giving an impromptu answer at 6.07 in the morning back in May. For this he and the BBC have been castigated for irresponsible journalism.

In my view the one certainty is that Lord Hutton, citing the claim more than a dozen times without identifying it as either A or B, has made a comprehensive mess of it.

Yours faithfully,
DAVID FAIRBAIRN,
11 Oak Way,
Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2NT.
February 5.


From Sir Richard Parsons

Sir, “Spies must tell how they got Iraq so wrong” says your headline (February 3). Surely politicians must also tell why they believed the spies so naively.

In my experience in the Foreign Service, the quality of secret intelligence varied enormously. So many things could go wrong: the impossibility, for a user, of verifying the source; deliberate deception by a foreign power; agents who simply made it up, for money; the wiles of exiles. Intelligence could be a guide to action, not a water-tight justification.

Let us have no more cases of intelligence material being used as propaganda to justify a pre-emptive strike.

Yours sincerely,
RICHARD PARSONS,
(Ambassador to Hungary, 1976-79; to Spain, 1980-84; to Sweden 1984-87),
Lancaster House,
Old Methwold Road, Whittington,
Nr King’s Lynn, Norfolk PE33 9TN.
February 3.